Yessenia Gutierrez, MJLST Staffer
Recent advances in generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) have generated a media buzz and revived worries about the future of work: How many jobs are at risk of being eliminated? Can workers be retrained to work new jobs that did not exist before, or new versions of their now technologically-augmented jobs? What happens to those workers who cannot be retrained? What if not enough jobs are created to compensate for those lost?
It is hard to calculate the pace, extent, and distribution of job displacement due to technological advancements.[1] However, there is general agreement among business leaders that there will be significant job losses due to AI.[2] Professions spanning the education and income spectrum may be impacted, from surgeons to investment bankers to voice actors.[3]
Nevertheless, the jobs predicted to be most impacted are lower-paid jobs such as bank tellers, postal service clerks, cashiers, data entry clerks, and secretaries.[4]
Proponents of rapid AI adoption emphasize its potential for creating “a productivity boost for non-displaced workers” and a resultant “labor productivity boom.”[5] While that will likely be true, what remains uncertain is who will reap the majority of the benefits stemming from this boom — employers or their now more productive workers.
One of the main concerns about increasing use of AI in the workplace is that entire job classifications will be eliminated, leaving large swaths of workers unemployed. There is no consensus over whether technology has created or eliminated more jobs.[6] However, even assuming technological advances have created more jobs than those rendered obsolete, the process of large numbers of workers switching from one type of job to another (perhaps previously nonexistent) job still creates serious challenges.
For one, this process adds stress on an already economically- and emotionally-stressed population.[7] The Center for Disease Control credits “fears about limited employment opportunities, perceptions of job insecurity, and anxiety about the need to acquire new skills” as contributing to “public health crises such as widespread increases in depression, suicide, and alcohol and drug abuse (including opioid-related deaths).”[8] Those workers able to keep their jobs have less bargaining power, as they fear speaking up about possible health, safety, and other concerns for fear of losing their job.[9]
To assist in this transition, some argue that more government intervention is necessary.[10] In fact, several states have enacted legislation regulating the use of AI in employment matters, including protections against discrimination in employment decisions made using AI.[11] Some states are also experimenting with AI training for high school seniors and state employees, sometimes with encouragement from major employers.[12] Federal politicians are also considering legislation, although none has passed.[13]
Some commentators argue that workers themselves have a responsibility to learn skills to remain competitive in the labor market.[14] Still others argue that employers should take up the task of retraining employees, with benefits for employers including ensuring an adequate supply of skilled labor, reducing hiring costs, and increasing employee loyalty, morale, and productivity.[15] One subset of this approach are partnerships between employers and labor unions, such as that between Microsoft Corp. and the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO).[16] Announced in December of 2023, the partnership lists its goals as (1) sharing information about AI trends with unions and workers, (2) integrating worker feedback into AI development, and 3) influencing public policy in support of affected workers.
Others point to the need for strong worker organizations that are capable of bargaining about and achieving protections related to AI and other technology in the workplace.
Collective Bargaining
The Economic Policy Institute, a think-tank aligned with labor unions, argues that the “best ‘AI policy’ that [policymakers] can provide is boosting workers’ power by improving social insurance systems, removing barriers to organizing unions, and sustaining lower rates of unemployment.”[17] Union officials agree on the importance of unions protecting their members from technological displacements, and have started pushing for “requirements that companies must notify and negotiate with worker representatives before deploying new automation technologies.”[18]
The above-mentioned partnership between the AFL-CIO and Microsoft includes a “neutrality framework” which “confirms a joint commitment to respect the right of employees to form or join unions, to develop positive and cooperative labor-management relationships, and to negotiate collective bargaining agreements that will support workers in an era of rapid technological change.”[19] Ideally, this means that Microsoft would not attempt to dissuade any employees that try to unionize, including through common “union avoidance” measures.[20] Employer neutrality can provide more favorable conditions for unionizing, which provides a formal mechanism for workers to collectively bargain for technology policies calibrated to their particular industry and tasks.
Unfortunately, achieving these measures, whether through legislation or Collective Bargaining Agreements (CBAs), will likely require applying tremendous pressure on employers.
For example, in 2023, the Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) union and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) simultaneously went on strike for the first time in sixty years.[21] One of the main demands for both unions was protections against AI use. Both achieved partial concessions after 118 days and 148 days out on strike, respectively.[22]
SAG-AFTRA and WGA enjoyed considerable leverage that other workers likely will not have. As Politico reported, Hollywood serves as a “key base for wealthy Democratic donors” which is especially important in California, where much of the industry is based.[23] Entertainment workers occupy an important place in many of our daily lives and support an economically important industry.[24] Unlike healthcare workers or state employees, withholding their labor cannot be portrayed as dangerous, a characterization that seeks to undermine public support for some striking workers.[25]
The resolve and strategic action of both unions charts a path for other unions to ensure worker input into the use of technology in the workplace, while revealing how difficult this path will be.
Conclusion
Although the exact effects of increased AI-adoption by employers are still unknown, there are clear reasons to take their potential effects on workers seriously, today. Workers across the income spectrum are already feeling the pressure of job losses, job displacements, the need to retrain for a new job, and the economic and emotional stress these cause. Bolstering retraining programs, whether run by the government, employers, or through joint efforts are a step towards meeting the demands of tomorrow. However, to truly assuage employee fears of displacement, workers must have meaningful input into their working conditions, including the introduction of new technology to their workplace. Unions hold an important role in achieving this goal.
Notes:
[1] Chia-Chia Chang et al., The Role of Technological Job Displacement in the Future of Work, CDC’s NIOSH Science Blog (Feb. 15, 2022), https://blogs.cdc.gov/niosh-science-blog/2022/02/15/tjd-fow/.
[2] See e.g., Jack Kelly, Goldman Sachs Predicts 300 Million Jobs Will be Lost or Degraded by Artificial Intelligence, Forbes (Mar. 31, 2023), https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/03/31/goldman-sachs-predicts-300-million-jobs-will-be-lost-or-degraded-by-artificial-intelligence/; G Krishna Kumar, AI-led Job Loss is Real, Govt Must Intervene, Deccan Herald (July 21, 2024), https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/ai-led-job-loss-is-real-govt-must-intervene-3115077.
[3] Kelly, supra note 2.
[4] Ian Shine & Kate Whiting, These Are the Jobs Most Likely to be Lost – And Created – Because of AI, World Economic Forum (May 4, 2023), https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/05/jobs-lost-created-ai-gpt/.
[5] Kelly, supra note 2.
[6] See e.g., Peter Dizikes, Does Technology Help or Hurt Employment?, MIT News (Apr. 1, 2024), https://news.mit.edu/2024/does-technology-help-or-hurt-employment-0401.
[7] See e.g., Hillary Hoffower, Financial Stress is Making Us Mentally and Physically Ill. Here’s How to Cope, Fortune (May 10, 2024), https://fortune.com/well/article/financial-stress-mental-health-physical-illness/; Majority of Americans Feeling Financially Stressed and Living Paycheck to Paycheck According to CNBC Your Money Survey, CNBC News Releases (Sept. 7, 2023), https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/07/majority-of-americans-feeling-financially-stressed-and-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-according-to-cnbc-your-money-survey.html.
[8] Chang et al., supra note 1.
[9] Id.
[10] See e.g., Chris Marr, AI Poses Job Threats While State Lawmakers Move With Caution, Bloomberg Law (Aug. 13, 2024), https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/ai-poses-job-threats-while-state-lawmakers-move-with-caution.
[11] Sanam Hooshidary et al., Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace: The Federal and State Legislative Landscape, National Conference of State Legislatures (updated Oct. 23, 2024), https://www.ncsl.org/state-federal/artificial-intelligence-in-the-workplace-the-federal-and-state-legislative-landscape.
[12] Kaela Roeder, High School Seniors in Maryland Are Getting Daily AI Training, Technical.ly (Nov. 8, 2024), https://technical.ly/workforce-development/high-school-ai-training-howard-county-maryland/; Maryland to Offer Free AI Training to State Employees, Government Technology (Sept. 25, 2024), https://www.govtech.com/artificial-intelligence/maryland-to-offer-free-ai-training-to-state-employees; Marr, supra note 10 (“A coalition of major tech companies is urging state lawmakers to focus their efforts on retraining workers for newly emerging jobs in the industry.”).
[13] Marr, supra note 10.
[14] Rachel Curry, Recent Data Shows AI Job Losses Are Rising, But the Numbers Don’t Tell the Full Story, CNBC (Dec. 16, 2023), https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/16/ai-job-losses-are-rising-but-the-numbers-dont-tell-the-full-story.html.
[15] See John Hall, Why Upskilling and Reskilling Are Essential in 2023, Forbes (Feb. 24, 2023), https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhall/2023/02/24/why-upskilling-and-reskilling-are-essential-in-2023/; The 2020s Will be a Decade of Upskilling. Employers Should Take Notice, World Economic Forum (Jan. 10, 2024), https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/01/the-2020s-will-be-a-decade-of-upskilling-employers-should-take-notice/.
[16] Press Release, AFL-CIO and Microsoft Announce New Tech-Labor Partnership on AI and the Future of the Workforce, AFL-CIO (Dec. 11, 2023), https://aflcio.org/press/releases/afl-cio-and-microsoft-announce-new-tech-labor-partnership-ai-and-future-workforce.
[17] Josh Bivens & Ben Zipperer, Unbalanced Labor Market Power is What Makes Technologu–Including AI–Threatening to Workers, Economic Policy Institute (Mar. 28, 2024), https://www.epi.org/publication/ai-unbalanced-labor-markets/.
[18] Marr, supra note 10.
[19] Press Release, supra note 16.
[20] See e.g., Roy E. Bahat & Thomas A. Kochan, How Businesses Should (and Shouldn’t) Respond to Union Organizing, Harvard Business Review (Jan. 6, 2023), https://hbr.org/2023/01/how-businesses-should-and-shouldnt-respond-to-union-organizing; Ben Bodzy, Best Practices for Union Avoidance, Baker Donelson (last visited Nov. 18, 2024), https://www.bakerdonelson.com/files/Uploads/Documents/Breakfast_Briefing_11-17-11_Union_Avoidance.pdf; Carta H. Robison, Steps for Employers to Preserve a Union Free Workplace, Barett McNagny (last visited Nov. 18, 2024), https://www.barrettlaw.com/blog/labor-and-employment-law/union-avoidance-steps-for-employers.
[21] Chelsey Sanchez, Everything to Know About the SAG Strike That Shut Down Hollywood, Harpers Bazaar (Nov. 9, 2023), https://www.harpersbazaar.com/culture/politics/a44506329/sag-aftra-actors-strike-hollywood-explained/#what-is-sag-aftra.
[22] Jake Coyle, In Hollywood Writers’ Battle Against AI, Humans Win (For Now), AP News (Sept. 27, 2023), https://apnews.com/article/hollywood-ai-strike-wga-artificial-intelligence-39ab72582c3a15f77510c9c30a45ffc8; Bryan Alexander, SAG-AFTRA President Fran Drescher: AI Protection Was A ‘Deal Breaker’ In Actors Strike, USA Today (Nov. 10, 2023), https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2023/11/10/sag-aftra-deal-ai-safeguards/71535785007/.
[23] Lara Korte & Jeremy B. White, Newsom Signs Laws to Protect Hollywood from Fake AI Actors, Politico (Sept. 17, 2024), https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/17/newsom-signs-law-hollywood-ai-actors-00179553; Party Control of California State Government, Ballotpedia, https://ballotpedia.org/Party_control_of_California_state_government (last visited Nov. 18, 2024).
[24] Advocacy: Driving Local Economies, Motion Picture Ass’n, https://www.motionpictures.org/advocacy/driving-local-economies/ (last visited Jan. 17, 2025).
[25] See, e.g., Ryan Essex & Sharon Marie Weldon, The Justification For Strike Action In Healthcare: A Systematic Critical Interpretive Synthesis, 29:5 Nursing Ethics 1152 (2022) https://doi.org/10.1177/09697330211022411; Nina Chamlou, How Nursing Strikes Impact Patient Care, NurseJournal (Oct. 10, 2023), https://nursejournal.org/articles/how-nursing-strikes-impact-patient-care/.